Peter Johnson – Journalism

To many casual followers of the Bundesliga, it is a source of great amusement that Harry Kane may have joined Bayern Munich just in time for their first trophy-less season since 2012. However, the irony should be lost on nobody that it may be Germany’s answer to Tottenham Hotspur who deny him a maiden title.

In April 2002, Bayer Leverkusen, managed by Klaus Toppmöller, and boasting stars such as Michael Ballack, Dimitar Berbatov and Zé Roberto, were dreaming the impossible. Top of the Bundesliga with four games to play, into the quarter finals of the Champions League, and through to the final of the DFB Pokal, the Westphalian club had a possible treble in their crosshairs, but it all went horribly wrong.

Toppmöller’s men won just one of their remaining four Bundesliga matches and were pipped to the title by Borussia Dortmund. They were then undone by Schalke in the DFB Pokal final and after defeating English giants Liverpool and Manchester United in the quarter-finals and semi-finals of the Champions League, Zinedine Zidane would inspire Real Madrid to a 2-1 victory over the Germans in the Glasgow final.

Leverkusen somehow ended a dream season empty-handed, and their wait for a first major trophy since 1993 continues to this day. They are not-so-lovingly known among German football supporters as “Neverkusen” or “Vizekusen” (which means “Second-kusen” in German), although this year they are everybody’s second-favourite club as they look to topple the all-conquering Bayern Munich, who have won two of those elusive trebles since 2013 and 11 straight Bundesliga titles.

Another potentially historic season?

Not since 1942/43 has a German side gone an entire top flight season undefeated, when Dresdner SC won 23 of 23 games in a format which saw an 18-match league followed by a knock-out competition. No side in the modern-day Bundesliga has replicated the feat.

Last Saturday’s win over newly-promoted Heidenheim, who themselves were on a highly respectable eight-game unbeaten run, took Xabi Alonso’s points haul as Leverkusen boss to 100 from 46 league games, and means his side have now won 18 and drawn four of their opening 22 matches. It should be noted that German top-flight campaigns are just 34 games, rather than 38.

Even Bayern Munich, champions for the last 11 seasons, have failed to achieve an unbeaten campaign. Curiously, the closest they got to invincibility was in the first of their 11 straight Bundesliga-winning campaigns in 2012-13 under Louis van Gaal and Andreas Jonker, when they lost one game all season to… Bayer Leverkusen.

That defeat, one of just five games they failed to win in the league all season, came relatively early on Matchday 9. The deepest Bayern went into a season before losing a match was the following season in 2013-14 under Jupp Heynckes, when they managed 28 games without defeat before back-to-back losses against Augsburg and Borussia Dortmund.

The match against Heidenheim last weekend was Bayer Leverkusen’s 32nd in all competitions this season, and they haven’t lost any. That in itself equals a German record set by Hansi Flick’s Bayern, although that was across two seasons in 2019/20 and 2020/21.

Ghosts of the past – and Mainz at home

Next up for Alonso’s Leverkusen this weekend is a home fixture against Mainz, the club that launched the managerial careers of Champions League-winning managers Jürgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel. Despite top-ten finishes in the last two seasons, the threat of Mainz has waned somewhat, with the club having had more permanent managers than league wins this season.

However, it will be lost on no German football aficionado that this was the exact fixture that tripped up Borussia Dortmund on the final day of last season.

Having turned round what was at one stage a nine point deficit to Bayern, Edin Terzic’s side clawed their way back to be two points clear ahead of the final Matchday 34. With an inferior goal difference, only a win would guarantee the title when Mainz came to town. Even Mainz supporters, by their own admission, wanted Dortmund to get over the line.

Dortmund duly slipped to a 2-0 deficit inside the opening 25 minutes and a 96th minute equaliser from Niklas Süle was not enough to deny Bayern the crown, who for their part scored a late winner through Jamal Musiala in Cologne.

Leverkusen’s collapse in 2002 was even worse, and this time it was Dortmund who profited. Toppmöller’s side had a five-point advantage with three games remaining, although defeats to Werder Bremen and Nuremberg left them one point behind Dortmund on the final day. Wins for both sides meant the title went to the Westfalenstadion.

Borussia Dortmund pounced when Leverkusen slipped up in 2002, but threw the league away themselves in 2023 (Image credit: Sandro Halank; Copyright: Sandro Halank, CC BY-SA 4.0)

When does Leverkusen’s lead become insurmountable?

No side has ever overturned a deficit of more than nine points to win the Bundesliga.

In the 2008-09 season, Wolfsburg were languishing in ninth place after the Hinrunde (the first half of the Bundesliga season), nine points behind leaders Hoffenheim. 14 wins from their 17 Rückrunde fixtures gave the title to Die Wölfe for the first and only time.

A decade later, Bayern Munich were nine points adrift of Borussia Dortmund after just 12 games. Of course, they went on to claim what was their seventh straight title.

After 22 games this season, Leverkusen’s lead stands at eight points. Bayern stand right on the cusp of the point of no return – one more slip up may put them beyond that nine-point threshold. In fact, with Leverkusen facing Mainz on Friday night, the gap could be 11 points by the time Bayern next kick a ball.

Leverkusen are 11 points better off at this stage of the season when they capitulated and lost the title by one point in 2002. They’re 12 points better off than leaders Dortmund were after 22 games last season.

They also don’t have to face Bayern again this season, having taken four points from their two encounters – a 1-1 draw at the Allianz Arena in September and a statement 3-0 victory at home two weekends ago.

Fascinatingly, they also earned an early-season 1-1 draw away against Dortmund in September 2001, before dismantling them 4-0 at home the following February. A possibly disconcerting parallel for the more superstitious Leverkusen faithful.

Dortmund, for their part, picked up just one point against Bayern last season.

However, despite Bayern’s relative struggles this season, they are four points better off than they were at this point in their triumphant 2022-23 season, and five better off than Dortmund were when they overturned Leverkusen 22 years ago.

Xabi Alonso training with FC Bayern in 2015 (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

A word for the manager

Leverkusen are clearly a better side than Borussia Dortmund were last season, in large part thanks to their manager who just knows how to win.

Xabi Alonso won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich as a player three times – two of those were with Pep Guardiola as manager, the other with Carlo Ancelotti. His managerial style, however, is clearly from the Germanic school of thought, more reminiscent of a traditional Jürgen Klopp or Ralf Rangnick side. Little wonder, then, that he is considered such a natural fit for Anfield.

Statistically, there should be next to no question of Leverkusen going the distance. If Bayern were eight points clear with talk of a potential unbeaten campaign, the season would long have been declared over.

However, as in 2002, Leverkusen are still competing on three fronts. They face 2. Bundesliga side Fortuna Düsseldorf in the semi-final of the DFB Cup on 3rd April, almost 18 years to the day since their shot at the treble began to fall to pieces. They may yet also find themselves back in the British Isles for a European final, with Dublin hosting the Europa League final this year. It is possible that the one thing that could unstick this wonderful side is competing on too many fronts.

There is no doubt Xabi Alonso’s side are ready to end their 31-year trophy drought. There is no doubt that it is now beginning to look rather likely. However, there is no escaping the parallels from that haunting 2001-2002 season. Will these prove to be a perfect redemption arc, or is history doomed to repeat itself?

If it does, it would be the most catastrophic collapse in Bundesliga history.

Cover image credit: Vectorportal.com, CC BY